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Laval 2–2 Amiens

← Ligue 2 2016 Β· Fri, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Aurelien Petit, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw35%2.76
Laval win32%3.01
Amiens win32%3.03

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽Oualid El Hajjam · Amiens
26'πŸŸ¨β€” Β· Laval
37'🟨Richard Soumah · Amiens
42'🟨Hassane Alla · Laval
48'🟨Oualid El Hajjam · Amiens
66'⚽Dylan Saint-Louis · Laval
73'🟨Khaled Adenon · Amiens
79'⚽Alassane Ndiaye · Laval
81'⚽Jonathan Tinhan · Amiens
90'🟨Hassane Alla · Laval
90'πŸŸ₯Hassane Alla Β· Laval

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricLavalAmiens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.30
box share (last 5)0.700.45
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days45.00746.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)β€”2.32
elo1441.12
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Francis-Le Basser
1515.08
elo momentum (last 5)-18.37-7.24
eye test v1-1.02-0.02
eye trend v10.140.15
first sub minute (last 10)52.8059.10
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.45
keeper form v10.770.84
league points15.0028.00
league rank16.008.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.4075.20
possession avg (last 5)43.8051.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.330.32
season ppg0.831.56
skill v1-1.31-0.03
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.784.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.20
state index-0.75-0.13
sterile dominance v1-0.27-0.26
threat rate (last 10)0.210.24
threat rate (last 3)0.150.28
threat rate (last 5)0.170.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.20