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Sochaux 2–0 Red Star

← Ligue 2 2016 Β· Fri, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Karim Abed, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win52%1.89
Draw30%3.27
Red Star win19%5.23

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽ (og)Jonathan Mexique · Sochaux
42'🟨Abdoulaye Sane · Red Star
49'⚽Moussa Sao · Sochaux
53'🟨Anatole Ngamukol · Red Star
71'🟨Faneva Andriatsima · Sochaux
82'🟨Marco Ilaimaharitra · Sochaux

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxRed Star
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.31
box share (last 5)0.500.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days442.001629.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.342.68
elo1515.32
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Bonal
1441.78
elo momentum (last 5)12.34-27.70
eye test v10.13-0.71
eye trend v10.34-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)62.5066.70
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.571.14
keeper form v10.71β€”
league points29.0019.00
league rank6.0015.00
matches since blank4.006.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8073.20
possession avg (last 5)49.2050.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.530.21
season ppg1.611.06
skill v1-0.46-0.32
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.443.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.00
state index0.21-0.80
sterile dominance v1-0.320.19
threat rate (last 10)0.210.17
threat rate (last 3)0.270.20
threat rate (last 5)0.240.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40