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Orleans 2–2 Reims

← Ligue 2 2016 · Mon, Dec 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Eric Wattellier, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Orleans win39%2.54
Draw32%3.03
Reims win29%3.37

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Greg Houla · Orleans
50'⚽Gaëtan Charbonnier · Reims
56'⚽Alexis Peuget · Reims
69'⚽Jean-Eudes Aholou · Orleans
72'🟨Diego · Reims
73'⚽ (pen)Romain Armand · Orleans
80'🟨Joel Sami · Orleans
83'🟨Hamari Traoré · Reims
87'🟨Atila Turan · Reims

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOrleansReims
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.29
box share (last 5)0.550.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1625.00164.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)—2.64
elo1419.65
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Source
1495.27
elo momentum (last 5)-13.15-11.29
eye test v10.32-0.50
eye trend v10.190.02
first sub minute (last 10)53.7058.20
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.99
league points14.0029.00
league rank19.007.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.6073.50
possession avg (last 5)52.4050.00
rest days12.9814.00
scorer concentration0.250.16
season ppg0.821.71
skill v1-0.57-0.33
sot against avg (last 5)2.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.673.22
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.20
state index-0.59-0.29
sterile dominance v1-0.49-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.270.21
threat rate (last 3)0.290.26
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80