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Nimes 1–2 Stade Brestois 29

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stade Brestois 29 win35%2.82
Nimes win35%2.82
Draw31%3.16

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Neal Maupay · Stade Brestois 29
18'🟨Luciano Castan · Stade Brestois 29
22'⚽Julien Faussurier · Stade Brestois 29
27'🟨Anthony Marin · Nimes
38'⚽ (pen)Teji Savanier · Nimes
62'🟨Fabien Garcia · Nimes
70'🟨Zakaria Diallo · Stade Brestois 29

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNimesStade Brestois 29
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.47
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.54
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.440.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days404.00161.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Costières
3.00
4.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)2.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.40
corners volatility (last 10)—2.18
elo1491.621499.56
elo momentum (last 5)-0.82-4.80
eye test v1-0.740.83
eye trend v1-0.220.13
first sub minute (last 10)60.3061.50
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.340.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
keeper form v1—0.63
league points27.0035.00
league rank10.002.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.0078.80
possession avg (last 5)44.6054.60
rest days10.009.79
scorer concentration0.430.38
season ppg1.351.84
skill v1-1.540.55
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.575.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.006.20
squad age25.0126.90
state index-0.09-0.14
sterile dominance v1-1.140.45
threat rate (last 10)0.290.20
threat rate (last 3)0.240.25
threat rate (last 5)0.270.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60