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Red Star 1–0 Orleans

← Ligue 2 2016 · Tue, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Aurelien Petit, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Red Star win37%2.63
Draw34%2.84
Orleans win29%3.42

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Idriss Mhirsi · Red Star
5'🟨Matthieu Ligoule · Orleans
46'🟨Jérôme Hergault · Red Star

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarOrleans
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.480.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1612.001612.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.401.40
corners against avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Jean-Bouin
3.80
4.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.54—
elo1425.111378.75
elo momentum (last 5)-60.565.00
eye test v1-0.66-0.00
eye trend v1-0.070.17
first sub minute (last 10)64.2055.50
form points (last 5)0.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
keeper form v1—0.56
league points15.0016.00
league rank20.0018.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.002.00
matches since win6.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8070.20
possession avg (last 5)53.6052.40
rest days3.834.00
scorer concentration0.270.25
season ppg0.790.84
skill v10.15-0.54
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.60
squad age26.2429.21
state index-1.49-0.58
sterile dominance v10.69-0.24
threat rate (last 10)0.140.24
threat rate (last 3)0.180.21
threat rate (last 5)0.160.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.40