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Orleans 0–2 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2016 Β· Fri, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Thomas Leonard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Orleans win48%2.05
Draw30%3.22
Valenciennes win22%4.39

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'🟨Matthieu Ligoule · Orleans
74'🟨Greg Houla · Orleans
77'⚽Eloge Enza-Yamissi · Valenciennes
79'🟨Eloge Enza-Yamissi · Valenciennes
90'⚽ (og)Edson Seidou · Valenciennes

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricOrleansValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)β€”0.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.35
box share (last 5)0.590.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1608.00329.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)β€”2.63
elo1446.18
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade de la Source
1424.57
elo momentum (last 5)-2.27-23.86
eye test v1-0.18-0.14
eye trend v1β€”-0.49
first sub minute (last 10)58.2052.10
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.34
keeper form v10.670.57
league points14.0018.00
league rank17.0014.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.007.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.2579.75
possession avg (last 5)52.0054.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.250.40
season ppg0.931.20
skill v1-0.800.66
sot against avg (last 5)2.755.00
sot for avg (last 10)β€”4.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.254.20
state index-0.21-0.81
sterile dominance v1-0.370.74
threat rate (last 10)β€”0.20
threat rate (last 3)0.240.14
threat rate (last 5)0.240.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00