⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Sochaux 2–1 Tours

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: William Lavis, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win50%1.96
Draw31%3.18
Tours win20%4.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'⚽Adolphe Teikeu · Sochaux
45'🟨Ousseynou Cissé · Tours
64'🟨Denis Bouanga · Tours
76'🟨Maxence Prévot · Sochaux
86'🟨Toifilou Maoulida · Tours
87'⚽Geoffrey Malfleury · Tours
90'🟨Florian Tardieu · Sochaux
90'🟨Bingourou Kamara · Tours
90'⚽Goran Karanović · Sochaux

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxTours
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.45—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.62
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.62
box share (last 5)—0.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days414.00140.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.53—
elo1489.72
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bonal
1409.30
elo momentum (last 5)-31.77-24.40
eye test v1-0.330.41
eye trend v1-0.11—
first sub minute (last 10)55.1058.50
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.20
league points19.0010.00
league rank11.0018.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)—66.00
possession avg (last 5)48.2037.00
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.670.21
season ppg1.360.71
skill v1—-2.16
sot against avg (last 5)2.802.50
sot for avg (last 10)3.80—
sot for avg (last 3)3.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.806.00
state index-0.49-0.73
sterile dominance v10.35-1.50
threat rate (last 10)0.18—
threat rate (last 3)0.190.26
threat rate (last 5)0.180.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80