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Orleans 2–1 Nimes

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hamid Guenaoui, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Orleans win41%2.38
Draw31%3.15
Nimes win28%3.48

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Christian Kouakou · Nimes
38'🟨Edson Seidou · Orleans
58'⚽Esseid Belkalem · Orleans
74'🟨Anthar Yahia · Orleans
82'⚽Livio Nabab · Orleans
89'🟨Gael Angoula · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOrleansNimes
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.550.38
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1601.00383.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.001.00
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Source
1383.01
1500.92
elo momentum (last 5)1.047.18
eye test v1-0.38-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)52.8065.50
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.18
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.700.54
league points13.0024.00
league rank19.0010.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win10.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.0064.67
possession avg (last 5)51.3344.50
rest days13.8314.00
scorer concentration0.300.42
season ppg0.761.41
skill v1-0.78-1.76
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.674.25
squad age28.7226.40
state index-0.950.30
sterile dominance v1-0.38-1.59
threat rate (last 3)0.240.34
threat rate (last 5)0.240.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.60