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Ajaccio 2–0 RC Strasbourg Alsace

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ajaccio win35%2.81
Draw34%2.86
RC Strasbourg Alsace win31%3.12

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Moussa Maazou · Ajaccio
29'🟨Abdallah Ndour · RC Strasbourg Alsace
78'⚽Moussa Maazou · Ajaccio
79'🟨Ernest Seka · RC Strasbourg Alsace

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAjaccioRC Strasbourg Alsace
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.230.51
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.200.50
box share (last 5)0.64—
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days748.00140.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.384.22
elo1421.671408.39
elo momentum (last 5)-24.94-8.64
eye test v1
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade François-Coty
-1.10
-0.58
eye trend v1-0.07-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)66.0056.50
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.79
league points36.0020.00
league rank1.0010.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet5.005.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.00—
possession avg (last 5)48.0050.00
rest days10.9813.21
scorer concentration0.130.43
season ppg1.291.43
skill v1-0.58—
sot against avg (last 5)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.333.29
sot for avg (last 3)1.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.002.80
state index-0.53-0.55
sterile dominance v1-0.240.73
threat rate (last 10)0.220.15
threat rate (last 3)0.170.17
threat rate (last 5)0.220.15
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00