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Reims 0–2 Laval

← Ligue 2 2016 Β· Fri, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Stephane Jochem, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims win56%1.73
Draw28%3.52
Laval win16%6.15

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Alassane Ndiaye · Laval
54'🟨Erwan Quintin · Laval
56'🟨Samuel Bouhours · Reims
70'🟨Jordan Siebatcheu · Reims
72'⚽Alassane Ndiaye · Laval

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricReimsLaval
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.23
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)β€”0.43
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days140.0017.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Auguste-Delaune
1.00
1.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.201.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.002.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.12β€”
elo1589.401410.62
elo momentum (last 5)14.19-12.44
eye test v1-0.56-0.63
eye trend v1-0.030.10
first sub minute (last 10)59.3053.80
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.851.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.15
league points32.0012.00
league rank2.0021.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)β€”74.00
possession avg (last 5)42.2052.60
rest days13.0014.00
scorer concentration0.170.44
season ppg2.000.71
skill v1β€”-0.13
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.172.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.402.80
squad age25.8627.10
state index0.84-0.54
sterile dominance v1-0.32-0.07
threat rate (last 10)0.180.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.20
threat rate (last 5)0.200.24
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.00