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RC Strasbourg Alsace 1–2 Reims

← Ligue 2 2016 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Strasbourg Alsace win38%2.56
Draw33%2.98
Reims win29%3.35

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Gaëtan Charbonnier · Reims
29'⚽Hamari Traoré · Reims
41'🟨Éric Marester · RC Strasbourg Alsace
45'🟨Khalid Boutaïb · RC Strasbourg Alsace
60'🟨Abdallah Ndour · RC Strasbourg Alsace
61'🟨Samuel Bouhours · Reims
66'🟨Jaba Kankava · Reims
69'⚽Diego · Reims
77'🟨Vincent Nogueira · RC Strasbourg Alsace
88'⚽Jérémy Blayac · RC Strasbourg Alsace

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Strasbourg AlsaceReims
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.560.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.670.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.600.42
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days127.00127.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.223.10
elo1417.371513.02
elo momentum (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Meinau
4.18
-3.47
eye test v1-0.16-0.65
eye trend v10.080.22
first sub minute (last 10)61.3060.80
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.84
league points20.0023.00
league rank9.006.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
possession avg (last 5)47.4044.20
rest days7.047.83
scorer concentration0.460.19
season ppg1.541.77
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.333.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.20
state index-0.25-0.07
sterile dominance v10.51-0.01
threat rate (last 10)0.140.18
threat rate (last 3)0.120.20
threat rate (last 5)0.150.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60