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Niort 2–0 Sochaux

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sylvain Palhies, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort win34%2.85
Draw34%2.86
Sochaux win32%3.04

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'⚽Ande Dona Ndoh · Niort
31'🟨Junior Sambia · Niort
33'🟨Florin Berenguer · Sochaux
38'🟨Matthieu Sans · Niort
40'🟨Florian Tardieu · Sochaux
43'⚽David Djigla · Niort
49'🟨Ande Dona Ndoh · Niort
66'🟨Johann Ramare · Sochaux
78'🟨Ande Dona Ndoh · Niort
78'🟥Ande Dona Ndoh · Niort
83'🟨Saturnin Allagbe · Niort
83'🟨Mickaël Alphonse · Sochaux

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNiortSochaux
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.610.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.610.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days126.00400.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)—2.16
elo1483.691502.97
elo momentum (last 5)36.81-12.91
eye test v1
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade René-Gaillard
0.60
-0.40
first sub minute (last 10)59.6053.80
form points (last 5)12.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.63
league points17.0019.00
league rank12.009.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.002.00
possession avg (last 5)53.0046.25
rest days6.256.25
scorer concentration0.380.67
season ppg1.311.46
sot against avg (last 5)5.502.75
sot for avg (last 3)5.503.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.503.75
state index0.37-0.28
sterile dominance v10.700.35
threat rate (last 3)0.180.16
threat rate (last 5)0.180.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20