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Laval 0–1 Stade Brestois 29

← Ligue 2 2016 Β· Fri, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Eric Wattellier, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Laval win36%2.68
Draw34%2.84
Stade Brestois 29 win29%3.34

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

76'🟨Valentin Lavigne · Stade Brestois 29
87'🟨Romain Bayard · Laval
87'🟨Luciano Castan · Stade Brestois 29
88'⚽Steven Joseph-Monrose · Stade Brestois 29

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricLavalStade Brestois 29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.48β€”
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days2304.00112.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)β€”3.20
corners against avg (last 5)β€”3.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Francis-Le Basser
corners for avg (last 5)
β€”
6.40
corners volatility (last 10)β€”2.05
elo1412.141506.84
elo momentum (last 5)-3.9329.40
eye test v1-0.320.09
first sub minute (last 10)60.2060.10
form points (last 5)4.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
league points9.0023.00
league rank20.004.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.33β€”
possession avg (last 5)55.6757.25
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.500.40
season ppg0.641.92
skill v1-0.10β€”
sot against avg (last 5)2.672.75
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.334.50
squad age25.70β€”
state index-0.710.36
sterile dominance v1-0.221.00
threat rate (last 3)0.280.21
threat rate (last 5)0.280.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40