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Tours 4–1 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Yohann Rouinsard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tours win35%2.76
Draw33%2.95
Valenciennes win32%3.08

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Cheick Diarra · Tours
11'⚽Roderic Filippi · Tours
15'⚽ (og)Roderic Filippi · Valenciennes
26'🟨Moussa Niakhaté · Valenciennes
43'⚽Denis Bouanga · Tours
45'🟨Roderic Filippi · Tours
50'🟨Sigamary Diarra · Valenciennes
54'🟨Baptiste Aloé · Valenciennes
66'🟨Cheick Diarra · Tours
72'⚽Rayan Raveloson · Tours
82'🟥Roderic Filippi · Tours

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricToursValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)—0.53
accuracy ratio (last 5)—0.44
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days112.00294.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)—3.37
elo1414.671461.68
elo momentum (last 5)-65.86
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Vallée-du-Cher
19.52
eye test v1—0.27
eye trend v1—0.29
first sub minute (last 10)53.9058.90
form points (last 5)1.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.35
league points7.0017.00
league rank19.008.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win7.000.00
possession avg (last 5)—49.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.220.31
season ppg0.641.55
sot against avg (last 5)—4.00
sot for avg (last 10)—5.00
sot for avg (last 3)—6.33
sot for avg (last 5)—5.00
state index-1.580.07
sterile dominance v1—-0.09
threat rate (last 10)—0.23
threat rate (last 3)—0.26
threat rate (last 5)—0.23
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.20