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Laval 1–1 Clermont

← Ligue 2 2016 Β· Fri, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Stephanie Frappart, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Laval win38%2.60
Draw33%2.97
Clermont win30%3.30

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Wesley Jobello · Clermont
15'🟨Thomas Fontaine · Clermont
28'🟨Cedric Avinel · Clermont
31'🟨Cedric Avinel · Clermont
31'πŸŸ₯Cedric Avinel Β· Clermont
58'🟨Cyriaque Rivieryan · Clermont
72'🟨Aaron Appindangoyé · Laval
83'⚽Dylan Saint-Louis · Laval
90'🟨Cyriaque Rivieryan · Clermont
90'🟨Julien Laporte · Clermont
90'πŸŸ₯Cyriaque Rivieryan Β· Clermont

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricLavalClermont
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.19β€”
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.19β€”
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.40β€”
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days2283.001552.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d5.004.00
elo
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Francis-Le Basser
1423.06
1491.22
elo momentum (last 5)13.7916.31
eye test v1-0.76β€”
first sub minute (last 10)63.7850.89
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
league points8.0012.00
league rank20.0012.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win4.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.50β€”
possession avg (last 5)47.50β€”
rest days6.837.00
scorer concentration0.400.25
season ppg0.671.33
skill v1-1.16β€”
sot against avg (last 5)3.00β€”
sot for avg (last 3)2.50β€”
sot for avg (last 5)2.50β€”
squad age26.38β€”
state index-0.48-0.09
sterile dominance v1-1.10β€”
threat rate (last 3)0.31β€”
threat rate (last 5)0.31β€”
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20