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Orleans 1–2 Amiens

← Ligue 2 2016 Β· Fri, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Alexandre Castro, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Orleans win38%2.60
Draw33%2.98
Amiens win30%3.28

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Aboubakar Kamara · Amiens
25'🟨Khaled Adenon · Amiens
27'🟨Farid Beziouen · Orleans
27'🟨Guy Ngosso · Amiens
43'🟨Edson Seidou · Orleans
50'🟨Matthieu Ligoule · Orleans
62'🟨Esseid Belkalem · Orleans
71'⚽Aboubakar Kamara · Amiens
76'πŸŸ₯Matthieu Chemin Β· Orleans
90'⚽ (og)Jordan Lefort · Orleans

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricOrleansAmiens
accuracy ratio (last 3)β€”0.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)β€”0.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1545.00662.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
elo1413.281379.47
elo momentum (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade de la Source
-1.04
66.70
eye test v1β€”-0.59
first sub minute (last 10)55.1262.29
form points (last 5)5.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
league points8.0014.00
league rank20.006.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.001.00
possession avg (last 5)β€”48.67
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.330.38
season ppg1.002.00
sot against avg (last 5)β€”3.33
sot for avg (last 3)β€”3.67
sot for avg (last 5)β€”3.67
state index-0.330.29
sterile dominance v1β€”0.35
threat rate (last 3)β€”0.17
threat rate (last 5)β€”0.17
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20