← Premier League 2004-05 · Wed, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P Dowd
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Man United win | 49% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.30 |
| Everton win | 24% | 4.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 11 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.