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Bochum 1–3 FC St. Pauli 1910

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christof Gunsch, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win45%2.17
FC St. Pauli 1910 win29%3.37
Draw26%3.74

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Selim Gündüz · Bochum
23'⚽Lennart Thy · FC St. Pauli 1910
55'⚽Lasse Sobiech · FC St. Pauli 1910
58'🟨Marco Stiepermann · Bochum
62'🟨Jan-Philipp Kalla · FC St. Pauli 1910
68'🟨Thomas Eisfeld · Bochum
74'🟨Sören Gonther · FC St. Pauli 1910
79'🟨Richard Neudecker · FC St. Pauli 1910
86'⚽Lennart Thy · FC St. Pauli 1910

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumFC St. Pauli 1910
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.00
box share (last 5)0.670.72
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days902.00887.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
3.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.801.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.962.69
elo1519.381527.02
elo momentum (last 5)18.8344.11
eye test v10.63-0.09
eye trend v10.60-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)53.2055.20
form points (last 5)10.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.291.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.830.80
league points50.0046.00
league rank5.0010.00
matches since blank4.006.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8077.40
possession avg (last 5)50.8052.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.210.45
season ppg1.431.31
skill v10.040.30
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.604.00
squad age26.7827.62
state index0.290.80
sterile dominance v1-0.250.10
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.320.24
threat rate (last 5)0.270.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.40