← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 54% | 1.79 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 23% | 4.18 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 23% | 4.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 446.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Merkur Spielarena |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.38 | 2.62 |
| elo | 1429.00 | 1453.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.17 | 10.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| league points | 42.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.00 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.50 | 26.62 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |