← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dietz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 39% | 2.50 |
| Karlsruhe win | 34% | 2.87 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.62 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Oskar Zawada · Karlsruhe |
| 9' | 🟨 | Jannik Müller · Dresden |
| 12' | ⚽ | Jannik Müller · Dresden |
| 34' | 🟨 | Dirk Orlishausen · Karlsruhe |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Akaki Gogia · Dresden |
| 37' | ⚽ | Akaki Gogia · Dresden |
| 39' | 🟨 | Marco Hartmann · Dresden |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jannik Müller · Dresden |
| 85' | 🟨 | Niklas Landgraf · Dresden |
| 89' | ⚽ | Oskar Zawada · Karlsruhe |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Gaetan Krebs · Karlsruhe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 133.00 | 683.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Wildparkstadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.82 | 2.58 |
| elo | 1380.01 | 1452.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.85 | -51.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| league points | 26.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.35 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.05 | 24.00 |
| state index | -1.00 | -1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |