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FC Wurzburger Kickers 0–1 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Wurzburger Kickers win48%2.05
Draw30%3.24
SV Sandhausen win22%4.37

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Korbinian Vollmann · SV Sandhausen
42'🟨Lukas Fröde · FC Wurzburger Kickers
44'🟨Tim Knipping · SV Sandhausen
61'🟨Tobias Schröck · FC Wurzburger Kickers
71'🟨Denis Linsmayer · SV Sandhausen
87'🟨Elia Soriano · FC Wurzburger Kickers

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC Wurzburger KickersSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.440.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1048.00317.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueFlyeralarm Arena
3.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.892.22
elo1431.761445.91
elo momentum (last 5)-16.58-0.83
eye test v1-0.91-0.63
eye trend v10.320.12
first sub minute (last 10)53.3050.80
form points (last 5)3.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.481.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.620.71
league points37.0042.00
league rank16.0012.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win16.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.8067.20
possession avg (last 5)42.8049.80
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.200.22
season ppg1.091.24
skill v1-1.64-0.91
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.202.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.20
squad age26.2526.42
state index-1.31-0.37
sterile dominance v1-0.95-0.56
threat rate (last 10)0.210.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.25
threat rate (last 5)0.240.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60