← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 42% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.04 |
| Kaiserslautern win | 25% | 3.83 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | ⚽ | Mario Kvesić · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 81' | 🟨 | Patrick Ziegler · Kaiserslautern |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcel Gaus · Kaiserslautern |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 74.00 | 347.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.40 |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.75 |
| elo | 1444.00 | 1488.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.41 | 7.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| league points | 39.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.24 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | -1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.29 | 25.46 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |