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Bielefeld 6–0 Braunschweig

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig win41%2.37
Bielefeld win32%3.06
Draw27%3.61

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽ (og)Jan Hochscheidt · Bielefeld
24'⚽Julian Börner · Bielefeld
36'🟨Mirko Boland · Braunschweig
46'🟨Florian Dick · Bielefeld
65'⚽Reinhold Yabo · Bielefeld
67'⚽Reinhold Yabo · Bielefeld
71'⚽Keanu Staude · Bielefeld
76'⚽Reinhold Yabo · Bielefeld
87'🟨Saulo Decarli · Braunschweig

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBielefeldBraunschweig
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.30
box share (last 5)0.600.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days317.003300.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.493.27
elo1398.41
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSchüco-Arena
1540.40
elo momentum (last 5)18.7630.09
eye test v10.260.10
eye trend v10.430.32
first sub minute (last 10)53.3051.00
form points (last 5)6.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.07
keeper form v10.610.88
league points33.0063.00
league rank17.003.00
matches since blank8.003.00
matches since clean sheet7.001.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.2062.40
possession avg (last 5)46.2040.60
rest days7.085.80
scorer concentration0.280.26
season ppg1.031.97
skill v1-1.47-2.04
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.60
state index-0.300.60
sterile dominance v1-1.61-2.23
threat rate (last 10)0.280.34
threat rate (last 3)0.400.45
threat rate (last 5)0.350.38
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.00