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FC St. Pauli 1910 1–1 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alexander Sather, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win56%1.75
Draw26%3.77
Greuther Furth win18%5.27

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Cenk Şahin · FC St. Pauli 1910
37'⚽Robert Žulj · Greuther Furth
48'🟨Mathis Bolly · Greuther Furth
59'🟨Christopher Buchtmann · FC St. Pauli 1910
59'🟨Jürgen Gjasula · Greuther Furth
70'⚽Lasse Sobiech · FC St. Pauli 1910
88'🟨Patrick Sontheimer · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910Greuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.680.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days880.00170.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMillerntor-Stadion
2.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.001.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.832.45
elo1530.401468.03
elo momentum (last 5)66.81-26.44
eye test v10.050.07
eye trend v1-0.080.40
first sub minute (last 10)55.1058.30
form points (last 5)15.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.170.67
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.770.80
league points45.0047.00
league rank8.006.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4076.20
possession avg (last 5)50.4054.60
rest days9.007.00
scorer concentration0.470.31
season ppg1.321.38
skill v1-0.030.34
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.00
squad age27.8525.85
state index0.97-0.57
sterile dominance v1-0.17-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.250.33
threat rate (last 5)0.260.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00