← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rene Rohde, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 40% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.92 |
| FC Wurzburger Kickers win | 26% | 3.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | FC Wurzburger Kickers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 60.00 | 1034.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 1.78 |
| elo | 1438.41 | 1443.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.73 | -7.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| league points | 36.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 64.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | -1.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 26.66 | 26.93 |
| state index | 0.45 | -1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |