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Erzgebirge AUE 3–1 FC Wurzburger Kickers

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rene Rohde, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Erzgebirge AUE win40%2.43
Draw33%2.92
FC Wurzburger Kickers win26%3.70

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Fabian Kalig · Erzgebirge AUE
10'🟨Peter Kurzweg · FC Wurzburger Kickers
10'⚽ (pen)Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE
18'🟨Clemens Schoppenhauer · FC Wurzburger Kickers
18'⚽Pascal Köpke · Erzgebirge AUE
20'🟨Tobias Schröck · FC Wurzburger Kickers
31'🟨Valdet Rama · FC Wurzburger Kickers
38'🟨Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE
60'⚽Patrick Weihrauch · FC Wurzburger Kickers
63'🟨Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE
90'🟨Lukas Fröde · FC Wurzburger Kickers

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricErzgebirge AUEFC Wurzburger Kickers
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.25
box share (last 5)0.560.46
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days60.001034.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion
3.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.581.78
elo1438.411443.07
elo momentum (last 5)44.73-7.19
eye test v10.05-1.44
eye trend v10.340.40
first sub minute (last 10)55.6055.40
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.590.70
league points36.0036.00
league rank14.0015.00
matches since blank11.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.0014.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4064.60
possession avg (last 5)50.0041.40
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.360.22
season ppg1.131.13
skill v10.15-1.75
sot against avg (last 5)2.002.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.702.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.402.00
squad age26.6626.93
state index0.45-1.10
sterile dominance v10.17-0.65
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.240.24
threat rate (last 5)0.220.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.20