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Karlsruhe 1–3 Kaiserslautern

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bibiana Steinhaus, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern win44%2.24
Draw29%3.38
Karlsruhe win28%3.55

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Kacper Przybyłko · Kaiserslautern
14'🟨David Kinsombi · Karlsruhe
35'⚽David Kinsombi · Karlsruhe
66'🟨Matthias Bader · Karlsruhe
68'⚽Sebastian Kerk · Kaiserslautern
80'🟨Sebastian Kerk · Kaiserslautern
87'⚽Jacques Zoua · Kaiserslautern

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheKaiserslautern
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.350.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days118.00332.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueWildparkstadion
3.00
4.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-5.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.009.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.003.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.821.37
elo1378.231486.71
elo momentum (last 5)-33.9921.88
eye test v10.07-0.35
eye trend v1-0.350.00
first sub minute (last 10)52.7052.40
form points (last 5)1.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
keeper form v10.530.73
league points23.0039.00
league rank19.0011.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win7.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4065.20
possession avg (last 5)52.4039.20
rest days6.007.90
scorer concentration0.180.27
season ppg0.721.22
skill v10.21-1.84
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.00
squad age25.5125.32
state index-1.38-0.06
sterile dominance v10.25-1.17
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.27
threat rate (last 5)0.220.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.40