← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Fri, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Schroder, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 55% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 |
| Heidenheim win | 19% | 5.22 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Marcel Titsch-Rivero · Heidenheim |
| 52' | ⚽ (og) | John Verhoek · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 56' | ⚽ | Mats Møller Dæhli · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 58' | 🟨 | Marc Hornschuh · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 62' | ⚽ | Aziz Bouhaddouz · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 68' | 🟨 | Cenk Şahin · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marcel Titsch-Rivero · Heidenheim |
| 79' | 🟥 | Marcel Titsch-Rivero · Heidenheim |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lennart Thy · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 864.00 | 3527.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.49 |
| elo | 1505.55 | 1488.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.24 | -22.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.65 |
| league points | 39.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.32 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.07 | 26.84 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |