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VfB Stuttgart 3–1 1. FC Union Berlin

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Mon, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
VfB Stuttgart win53%1.83
Draw25%3.88
1. FC Union Berlin win21%4.57

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Christopher Trimmel · 1. FC Union Berlin
29'⚽Alexandru Maxim · VfB Stuttgart
33'⚽Simon Terodde · VfB Stuttgart
35'🟨Benjamin Pavard · VfB Stuttgart
42'🟨Stephan Fürstner · 1. FC Union Berlin
57'⚽Sebastian Polter · 1. FC Union Berlin
68'⚽Daniel Ginczek · VfB Stuttgart

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVfB Stuttgart1. FC Union Berlin
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.720.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days358.00297.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMercedes-Benz Arena
4.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)4.00-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.406.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.383.35
elo1611.221586.92
elo momentum (last 5)3.53-18.52
eye test v10.48-0.71
eye trend v10.14-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)53.7063.60
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.97
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.35
keeper form v10.720.70
league points61.0060.00
league rank2.003.00
matches since blank5.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2070.20
possession avg (last 5)61.6052.60
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.350.19
season ppg1.971.94
skill v11.24-0.40
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.40
squad age25.2625.81
state index0.500.10
sterile dominance v10.760.19
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.22
threat rate (last 5)0.250.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.60