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Heidenheim 2–2 Bielefeld

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Alt, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Heidenheim win39%2.47
Bielefeld win32%3.08
Draw29%3.38

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

44'🟨Ben Halloran · Heidenheim
46'⚽ (og)Florian Dick · Heidenheim
56'🟨Florian Hartherz · Bielefeld
57'⚽Mathias Wittek · Heidenheim
58'⚽Tom Schütz · Bielefeld
60'🟨Sebastian Griesbeck · Heidenheim
61'⚽Fabian Klos · Bielefeld
66'🟨Sebastian Griesbeck · Heidenheim
66'🟥Sebastian Griesbeck · Heidenheim
67'🟨John Verhoek · Heidenheim
83'🟨Sören Brandy · Bielefeld

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHeidenheimBielefeld
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.560.70
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days3521.00295.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVoith-Arena
4.00
4.00
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.541.84
elo1491.771445.54
elo momentum (last 5)-26.5938.52
eye test v1-0.07-0.35
eye trend v1-0.190.26
first sub minute (last 10)59.2054.80
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
keeper form v10.680.63
league points40.0033.00
league rank8.0017.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0063.60
possession avg (last 5)43.8048.00
rest days6.005.00
scorer concentration0.200.28
season ppg1.331.06
skill v1-1.03-1.39
sot against avg (last 5)3.602.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.20
squad age25.9226.83
state index-0.610.07
sterile dominance v1-0.53-0.84
threat rate (last 10)0.260.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.26
threat rate (last 5)0.220.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.00