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Fortuna Dusseldorf 1–3 FC St. Pauli 1910

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Fri, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benedikt Kempkes, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fortuna Dusseldorf win38%2.58
Draw31%3.11
FC St. Pauli 1910 win31%3.17

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'🟨Adam Bodzek · Fortuna Dusseldorf
50'🟨Özkan Yıldırım · Fortuna Dusseldorf
66'🟨Adam Bodzek · Fortuna Dusseldorf
66'🟥Adam Bodzek · Fortuna Dusseldorf
72'⚽Andre Hoffmann · Fortuna Dusseldorf
77'🟨Oliver Fink · Fortuna Dusseldorf
78'⚽Philipp Ziereis · FC St. Pauli 1910
82'🟥Andre Hoffmann · Fortuna Dusseldorf
83'⚽Christopher Buchtmann · FC St. Pauli 1910
85'🟨Daniel Buballa · FC St. Pauli 1910
90'🟨Kaan Ayhan · Fortuna Dusseldorf
90'⚽Aziz Bouhaddouz · FC St. Pauli 1910

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFortuna DusseldorfFC St. Pauli 1910
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.730.71
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days416.00857.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMerkur Spielarena
5.00
4.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.402.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.807.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.012.75
elo1435.781490.31
elo momentum (last 5)-26.8115.13
eye test v1-0.270.14
eye trend v10.070.18
first sub minute (last 10)64.6063.70
form points (last 5)2.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.660.83
league points38.0036.00
league rank11.0012.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.8072.80
possession avg (last 5)51.2055.00
rest days5.005.00
scorer concentration0.300.48
season ppg1.231.16
skill v1-0.850.03
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.60
squad age27.2026.87
state index-1.050.16
sterile dominance v1-0.23-0.20
threat rate (last 10)0.280.30
threat rate (last 3)0.260.30
threat rate (last 5)0.220.28
venue ppg (last 5)0.402.00