← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christof Gunsch, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 45% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 27% | 3.63 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Christian Gartner · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 47' | 🟨 | Philip Heise · Dresden |
| 68' | 🟨 | Adam Bodzek · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 77' | ⚽ | Stefan Kutschke · Dresden |
| 83' | 🟨 | Manuel Konrad · Dresden |
| 86' | 🟨 | Florian Ballas · Dresden |
| 89' | 🟨 | Andre Hoffmann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marvin Stefaniak · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 655.00 | 411.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.51 | 3.20 |
| elo | 1503.44 | 1432.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.25 | -10.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| league points | 45.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 65.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.23 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.06 | 27.39 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |