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Braunschweig 1–0 Dresden

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Mon, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig win45%2.16
Draw28%3.44
Dresden win26%3.69

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

65'🟨Phil Ofosu-Ayeh · Braunschweig
72'🟨Ken Reichel · Braunschweig
73'🟨Aias Aosman · Dresden
79'🟨Manuel Konrad · Dresden
88'🟨Onel Hernández · Braunschweig
90'⚽Ken Reichel · Braunschweig

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBraunschweigDresden
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.540.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days3266.00649.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEintracht-Stadion
2.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)4.20-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.404.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.602.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.883.50
elo1567.251510.19
elo momentum (last 5)26.1741.91
eye test v10.310.23
eye trend v10.21-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)52.2055.00
form points (last 5)11.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.29
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.45
keeper form v10.810.66
league points54.0045.00
league rank4.005.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.4081.80
possession avg (last 5)49.4058.20
rest days5.005.00
scorer concentration0.280.32
season ppg1.931.61
skill v1-0.811.17
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.40
squad age27.0824.12
state index0.500.64
sterile dominance v1-0.901.13
threat rate (last 10)0.280.19
threat rate (last 3)0.330.18
threat rate (last 5)0.300.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.00