← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 58% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 16% | 6.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Steve Breitkreuz · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 73' | 🟨 | Pascal Köpke · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 79' | ⚽ | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 278.00 | 35.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | An der Alten Försterei |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 2.88 |
| elo | 1597.25 | 1393.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.44 | 12.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.70 |
| league points | 56.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.96 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.62 | 26.60 |
| state index | 0.79 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |