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FC St. Pauli 1910 0–0 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Tue, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Florian Badstubner, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win49%1.98
Draw30%3.29
SV Sandhausen win21%4.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟥Damian Roßbach · SV Sandhausen
19'🟨Aziz Bouhaddouz · FC St. Pauli 1910
43'🟨Manuel Stiefler · SV Sandhausen
45'🟨Bernd Nehrig · FC St. Pauli 1910
56'🟨Daniel Buballa · FC St. Pauli 1910

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910SV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.170.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.750.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days840.00277.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMillerntor-Stadion
2.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.062.11
elo1465.351463.85
elo momentum (last 5)3.89-22.78
eye test v1-0.11-0.54
eye trend v1-0.340.19
first sub minute (last 10)60.1052.90
form points (last 5)7.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.511.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.730.69
league points29.0036.00
league rank16.007.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win3.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.2063.80
possession avg (last 5)48.2042.00
rest days4.003.00
scorer concentration0.450.27
season ppg1.041.33
skill v1-0.81-1.79
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.60
squad age26.2127.48
state index-0.21-0.81
sterile dominance v1-0.94-1.01
threat rate (last 10)0.300.24
threat rate (last 3)0.300.22
threat rate (last 5)0.310.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80