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Heidenheim 0–2 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Heidenheim win48%2.04
Draw29%3.36
Greuther Furth win23%4.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Robert Žulj · Greuther Furth
32'🟨Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim
43'🟨Khaled Narey · Greuther Furth
52'🟨Veton Berisha · Greuther Furth
67'⚽Robert Žulj · Greuther Furth
74'🟨Kevin Lankford · Heidenheim
87'🟨Nicolai Rapp · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHeidenheimGreuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.580.43
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days3501.00128.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVoith-Arena
2.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.252.49
elo1510.971475.04
elo momentum (last 5)-19.4836.83
eye test v10.09-0.67
eye trend v1-0.360.30
first sub minute (last 10)61.0062.70
form points (last 5)3.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.640.76
league points36.0039.00
league rank9.006.00
matches since blank3.005.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.8070.20
possession avg (last 5)48.2054.40
rest days15.9614.96
scorer concentration0.210.31
season ppg1.381.44
skill v1-1.16-0.28
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.302.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.80
squad age25.9026.84
state index-0.420.18
sterile dominance v1-1.200.14
threat rate (last 10)0.300.21
threat rate (last 3)0.240.26
threat rate (last 5)0.320.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60