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Greuther Furth 1–0 VfB Stuttgart

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 Β· Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Alexander Sather, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
VfB Stuttgart win47%2.08
Draw28%3.51
Greuther Furth win25%3.86

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Veton Berisha · Greuther Furth
21'🟨Andreas Hofmann · Greuther Furth
26'🟨Daniel Ginczek · VfB Stuttgart
60'🟨Anto Grgic · VfB Stuttgart
86'🟨Serdar Dursun · Greuther Furth
90'🟨Simon Terodde · VfB Stuttgart

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthVfB Stuttgart
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.530.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days113.00321.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
2.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.606.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.412.54
elo1462.291620.45
elo momentum (last 5)24.0117.34
eye test v1-0.740.19
eye trend v1-0.15-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)61.8050.00
form points (last 5)9.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.50
keeper form v10.740.78
league points36.0052.00
league rank6.002.00
matches since blank4.007.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2078.00
possession avg (last 5)56.8056.40
rest days6.008.00
scorer concentration0.320.35
season ppg1.382.08
skill v1-0.010.65
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.60
squad age26.2225.04
state index0.270.60
sterile dominance v10.720.60
threat rate (last 10)0.200.20
threat rate (last 3)0.140.23
threat rate (last 5)0.160.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.402.00