← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Fri, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Schroder, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 38% | 2.56 |
| Karlsruhe win | 32% | 3.04 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.28 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Dirk Orlishausen · Karlsruhe |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 81' | 🟨 | Christian Tiffert · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sebastian Hertner · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicky Adler · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 9.00 | 68.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.43 |
| elo | 1367.53 | 1442.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.20 | -24.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| league points | 19.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.69 | 25.75 |
| state index | -1.04 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |