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VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Bochum

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Fri, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benedikt Kempkes, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
VfB Stuttgart win65%1.50
Draw21%4.56
Bochum win13%7.28

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Anthony Losilla · Bochum
18'🟨Peniel Mlapa · Bochum
22'🟨Marco Stiepermann · Bochum
32'🟨Paweł Dawidowicz · Bochum
70'⚽Daniel Ginczek · VfB Stuttgart
72'🟨Russell Canouse · Bochum
84'🟨Carlos Mané · VfB Stuttgart

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVfB StuttgartBochum
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.620.45
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days313.00830.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMercedes-Benz Arena
3.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.413.26
elo1625.491492.35
elo momentum (last 5)29.54-0.39
eye test v10.15-0.40
eye trend v10.25-0.02
first sub minute (last 10)53.3055.80
form points (last 5)13.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.47
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.25
keeper form v10.790.74
league points51.0032.00
league rank2.0010.00
matches since blank6.009.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6070.60
possession avg (last 5)56.4058.40
rest days4.007.00
scorer concentration0.360.24
season ppg2.131.33
skill v10.710.03
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.40
squad age24.6025.74
state index0.89-0.22
sterile dominance v10.740.30
threat rate (last 10)0.190.25
threat rate (last 3)0.200.19
threat rate (last 5)0.200.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.80