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Heidenheim 2–2 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dietz, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Heidenheim win46%2.14
Draw30%3.22
SV Sandhausen win24%4.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Jakub Kosecki · SV Sandhausen
27'⚽Denis Linsmayer · SV Sandhausen
30'🟨Denis Linsmayer · SV Sandhausen
39'🟨John Verhoek · Heidenheim
43'🟨Daniel Łukasik · SV Sandhausen
45'⚽Arne Feick · Heidenheim
52'🟨Sebastian Griesbeck · Heidenheim
60'🟨Marcel Titsch-Rivero · Heidenheim
66'⚽ (pen)Marc Schnatterer · Heidenheim
76'🟨Mathias Wittek · Heidenheim
90'🟨John Verhoek · Heidenheim
90'🟥John Verhoek · Heidenheim
90'🟨Daniel Łukasik · SV Sandhausen
90'🟥Daniel Łukasik · SV Sandhausen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHeidenheimSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.29
box share (last 5)0.530.74
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days3473.00247.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.702.27
elo1502.07
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVoith-Arena
1488.77
elo momentum (last 5)-20.23-15.69
eye test v10.63-0.53
eye trend v1-0.140.06
first sub minute (last 10)58.8049.10
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.851.40
keeper form v10.720.78
league points33.0030.00
league rank6.008.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.8069.80
possession avg (last 5)51.0048.00
rest days8.028.79
scorer concentration0.240.30
season ppg1.501.36
skill v1-1.08-0.78
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.403.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.003.40
state index-0.22-0.35
sterile dominance v1-1.35-0.47
threat rate (last 10)0.280.27
threat rate (last 3)0.370.28
threat rate (last 5)0.350.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40