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Karlsruhe 2–0 Hannover

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Alt, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win44%2.21
Karlsruhe win29%3.36
Draw27%3.63

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Stefan Mugoša · Karlsruhe
21'🟨Grischa Prömel · Karlsruhe
26'🟨Marvin Bakalorz · Hannover
35'🟨Noah Joel Sarenren Bazee · Hannover
37'🟨Enrico Valentini · Karlsruhe
59'🟨Manuel Schmiedebach · Hannover
70'⚽ (pen)Dimitrios Diamantakos · Karlsruhe
87'🟨Miiko Albornoz · Hannover

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheHannover
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.580.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days62.003.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueWildparkstadion
3.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)3.001.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.123.25
elo1423.421583.68
elo momentum (last 5)-40.76-9.88
eye test v10.520.01
eye trend v1-0.07-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)59.6063.10
form points (last 5)1.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
keeper form v10.570.64
league points19.0045.00
league rank18.003.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet6.004.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0070.20
possession avg (last 5)52.8055.60
rest days5.007.00
scorer concentration0.210.26
season ppg0.791.96
skill v1-0.12-0.20
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.605.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.40
squad age26.0725.83
state index-1.210.11
sterile dominance v1-0.39-0.12
threat rate (last 10)0.280.30
threat rate (last 3)0.250.32
threat rate (last 5)0.290.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.60