← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 37% | 2.63 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 32% | 3.01 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.19 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 16' | ⚽ | Jannik Müller · Dresden |
| 21' | ⚽ | Niklas Kreuzer · Dresden |
| 39' | ⚽ | Stefan Kutschke · Dresden |
| 45' | ⚽ | Stefan Kutschke · Dresden |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 73' | 🟨 | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 75' | 🟨 | Stefan Kutschke · Dresden |
| 84' | 🟨 | Marco Hartmann · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 636.00 | 606.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.67 |
| elo | 1381.43 | 1451.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.95 | 3.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| league points | 18.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.41 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.53 | 24.25 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |