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Karlsruhe 1–2 1. FC Union Berlin

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Thorben Siewer, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Union Berlin win39%2.52
Karlsruhe win32%3.04
Draw29%3.34

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Jordi Figueras · Karlsruhe
6'⚽ (pen)Simon Hedlund · 1. FC Union Berlin
27'🟨Stephan Fürstner · 1. FC Union Berlin
37'⚽ (og)David Kinsombi · 1. FC Union Berlin
54'🟨Dennis Kempe · Karlsruhe
55'🟨Kristian Pedersen · 1. FC Union Berlin
65'🟨Jonas Meffert · Karlsruhe
77'⚽ (pen)Moritz Stoppelkamp · Karlsruhe
78'🟨Franck Kom · Karlsruhe
81'🟨Dimitrios Diamantakos · Karlsruhe
84'🟨Michael Parensen · 1. FC Union Berlin
90'🟨Franck Kom · Karlsruhe
90'🟥Franck Kom · Karlsruhe

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruhe1. FC Union Berlin
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.24
box share (last 5)0.500.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days49.00233.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.733.44
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueWildparkstadion
1383.97
1521.92
elo momentum (last 5)8.36-6.87
eye test v10.13-0.47
eye trend v10.290.06
first sub minute (last 10)61.3062.70
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.05
keeper form v10.670.78
league points18.0035.00
league rank17.004.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4067.20
possession avg (last 5)50.6053.00
rest days8.027.00
scorer concentration0.210.23
season ppg0.901.75
skill v1-0.24-0.71
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.80
state index-0.55-0.00
sterile dominance v1-0.55-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.290.25
threat rate (last 5)0.290.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.40