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Bielefeld 1–1 FC St. Pauli 1910

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld win38%2.55
FC St. Pauli 1910 win31%3.15
Draw31%3.17

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'🟨Florian Hartherz · Bielefeld
50'⚽Christopher Buchtmann · FC St. Pauli 1910
83'🟨Christopher Buchtmann · FC St. Pauli 1910
90'⚽Fabian Klos · Bielefeld

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBielefeldFC St. Pauli 1910
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.32
box share (last 5)0.560.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days233.00796.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.372.95
elo1354.481375.26
elo momentum (last 5)-17.0446.70
eye test v1
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSchüco-Arena
-0.42
-0.33
eye trend v10.030.51
first sub minute (last 10)56.5042.80
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.520.92
keeper form v10.590.73
league points17.0017.00
league rank17.0018.00
matches since blank10.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.6067.20
possession avg (last 5)41.2048.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.360.36
season ppg0.850.85
skill v1-1.81-1.05
sot against avg (last 5)5.802.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.60
state index-0.66-0.00
sterile dominance v1-1.48-0.81
threat rate (last 10)0.310.23
threat rate (last 3)0.260.31
threat rate (last 5)0.290.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.20