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Dresden 1–2 Hannover

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Florian Badstubner, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dresden win39%2.48
Hannover win33%2.98
Draw28%3.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Jannik Müller · Dresden
24'🟨Edgar Prib · Hannover
38'🟨Florian Hübner · Hannover
40'🟨Waldemar Anton · Hannover
54'🟨Marvin Bakalorz · Hannover
57'🟨Felix Klaus · Hannover
64'⚽Martin Harnik · Hannover
78'⚽Stefan Kutschke · Dresden
80'⚽Kenan Karaman · Hannover

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDresdenHannover
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.35
box share (last 5)0.570.42
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days599.00446.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.033.33
elo1492.87
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRudolf-Harbig Stadion
1485.80
elo momentum (last 5)-7.282.05
eye test v1-0.410.26
eye trend v1-0.66-0.40
first sub minute (last 10)57.4060.90
form points (last 5)8.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.92
keeper form v10.780.60
league points31.0038.00
league rank6.002.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0067.20
possession avg (last 5)58.6054.40
rest days7.005.72
scorer concentration0.260.26
season ppg1.551.90
skill v10.49-0.61
sot against avg (last 5)3.002.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.305.50
sot for avg (last 3)1.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.405.20
state index-0.17-0.16
sterile dominance v10.67-0.50
threat rate (last 10)0.230.28
threat rate (last 3)0.160.23
threat rate (last 5)0.200.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00