⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Kaiserslautern 3–0 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 Β· Fri, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Arne Aarnink, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern win39%2.49
Draw32%3.06
SV Sandhausen win29%3.37

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Jacques Zoua · Kaiserslautern
34'⚽Marcel Gaus · Kaiserslautern
76'🟨Sebastian Kerk · Kaiserslautern
78'⚽Osayamen Osawe · Kaiserslautern
80'🟨Richard Sukuta-Pasu · SV Sandhausen
82'🟨Daniel Gordon · SV Sandhausen

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaiserslauternSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.230.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.23
box share (last 5)0.570.72
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days261.00231.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.732.82
elo
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueFritz-Walter-Stadion
1405.83
1521.62
elo momentum (last 5)-1.2116.55
eye test v1-0.60-1.07
eye trend v10.29-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)66.0052.40
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.521.43
keeper form v10.840.84
league points23.0030.00
league rank12.007.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.2063.00
possession avg (last 5)51.2045.00
rest days7.005.21
scorer concentration0.380.30
season ppg1.151.50
skill v1-0.23-1.72
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.40
state index-0.310.31
sterile dominance v1-0.05-1.03
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.240.22
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.00