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FC St. Pauli 1910 2–0 Dresden

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win36%2.72
Dresden win33%2.93
Draw31%3.17

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'⚽Kyoung-Rok Choi · FC St. Pauli 1910
33'🟨Philip Heise · Dresden
40'🟨Bernd Nehrig · FC St. Pauli 1910
59'⚽Cenk Şahin · FC St. Pauli 1910
69'🟨Marco Hartmann · Dresden
88'🟨Giuliano Modica · Dresden

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910Dresden
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.32
box share (last 5)0.560.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days789.00592.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.033.19
elo1356.23
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMillerntor-Stadion
1511.90
elo momentum (last 5)28.231.23
eye test v1-0.60-0.29
eye trend v10.42-0.48
first sub minute (last 10)42.8060.60
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.26
keeper form v10.700.81
league points14.0031.00
league rank18.006.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0075.40
possession avg (last 5)51.2057.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.420.26
season ppg0.741.63
skill v1-0.560.42
sot against avg (last 5)2.002.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.804.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.80
state index-0.320.11
sterile dominance v1-0.400.67
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.270.16
threat rate (last 5)0.260.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.602.00