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1. FC Union Berlin 3–1 Bielefeld

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Union Berlin win51%1.93
Draw27%3.65
Bielefeld win23%4.33

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Michael Görlitz · Bielefeld
22'⚽Felix Kroos · 1. FC Union Berlin
44'⚽Fabian Klos · Bielefeld
55'🟨Manuel Junglas · Bielefeld
60'🟨Reinhold Yabo · Bielefeld
63'⚽Damir Kreilach · 1. FC Union Berlin
71'🟨Felix Kroos · 1. FC Union Berlin
76'🟨Emanuel Pogatetz · 1. FC Union Berlin
83'⚽Sebastian Polter · 1. FC Union Berlin
86'🟨Philipp Hosiner · 1. FC Union Berlin

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric1. FC Union BerlinBielefeld
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.540.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days226.00226.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAn der Alten Försterei
2.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-6.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.209.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.802.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.602.37
elo1556.911417.98
elo momentum (last 5)-3.59-4.58
eye test v1-0.76-0.50
eye trend v1-0.20-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)58.8053.50
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.53
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.770.58
league points35.0020.00
league rank4.0016.00
matches since blank0.0010.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.0065.60
possession avg (last 5)52.0041.60
rest days7.008.90
scorer concentration0.260.33
season ppg1.750.95
skill v1-1.02-1.69
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.40
squad age25.8227.94
state index0.13-0.60
sterile dominance v1-0.28-1.40
threat rate (last 10)0.210.29
threat rate (last 3)0.240.27
threat rate (last 5)0.220.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.00