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Bochum 1–1 Karlsruhe

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bibiana Steinhaus, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win44%2.21
Draw28%3.46
Karlsruhe win28%3.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Erwin Hoffer · Karlsruhe
20'🟨Dennis Kempe · Karlsruhe
45'🟨Jordi Figueras · Karlsruhe
66'🟨Tom Weilandt · Bochum
74'⚽Stefan Mugoša · Karlsruhe
85'⚽Johannes Wurtz · Bochum

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumKarlsruhe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.35
box share (last 5)0.670.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days797.0035.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.431.35
elo1391.39
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
1389.44
elo momentum (last 5)0.444.27
eye test v10.300.24
eye trend v10.030.01
first sub minute (last 10)61.1061.30
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.99
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.680.73
league points22.0017.00
league rank13.0016.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.0074.40
possession avg (last 5)50.2053.40
rest days8.797.00
scorer concentration0.260.25
season ppg1.220.94
skill v1-0.850.04
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.80
state index-0.36-0.32
sterile dominance v1-0.74-0.13
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.230.27
threat rate (last 5)0.280.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20