← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Arne Aarnink, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 44% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.26 |
| Nurnberg win | 26% | 3.73 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Abdelhamid Sabiri · Nurnberg |
| 30' | 🟨 | Tim Skarke · Heidenheim |
| 35' | 🟨 | Patrick Kammerbauer · Nurnberg |
| 41' | ⚽ | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 63' | 🟨 | Abdelhamid Sabiri · Nurnberg |
| 68' | ⚽ | Patrick Kammerbauer · Nurnberg |
| 76' | 🟨 | Lukas Mühl · Nurnberg |
| 79' | ⚽ | Abdelhamid Sabiri · Nurnberg |
| 90' | ⚽ | John Verhoek · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3444.00 | 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.11 |
| elo | 1523.07 | 1556.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.75 | -27.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.57 |
| league points | 30.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.32 |
| skill v1 | -1.41 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 26.00 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | -1.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |