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Heidenheim 2–3 Nurnberg

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Arne Aarnink, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Heidenheim win44%2.22
Draw30%3.26
Nurnberg win26%3.73

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Abdelhamid Sabiri · Nurnberg
30'🟨Tim Skarke · Heidenheim
35'🟨Patrick Kammerbauer · Nurnberg
41'⚽Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim
63'🟨Abdelhamid Sabiri · Nurnberg
68'⚽Patrick Kammerbauer · Nurnberg
76'🟨Lukas Mühl · Nurnberg
79'⚽Abdelhamid Sabiri · Nurnberg
90'⚽John Verhoek · Heidenheim

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHeidenheimNurnberg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.660.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days3444.00248.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVoith-Arena
1.00
1.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.200.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.702.11
elo1523.071556.60
elo momentum (last 5)-5.75-27.39
eye test v10.180.56
eye trend v10.340.11
first sub minute (last 10)60.8064.50
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
keeper form v10.730.57
league points30.0025.00
league rank8.0012.00
matches since blank9.0020.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.0069.40
possession avg (last 5)46.8046.20
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.200.45
season ppg1.581.32
skill v1-1.41-0.99
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.405.60
squad age26.7126.00
state index0.11-0.01
sterile dominance v1-0.67-1.39
threat rate (last 10)0.190.27
threat rate (last 3)0.260.39
threat rate (last 5)0.230.35
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.00