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Greuther Furth 4–1 Hannover

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Fri, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kempter, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win49%1.99
Draw26%3.78
Greuther Furth win25%3.88

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Serdar Dursun · Greuther Furth
21'⚽Marcel Franke · Greuther Furth
27'🟨Salif Sané · Hannover
31'🟨Marco Caligiuri · Greuther Furth
31'🟨Stefan Strandberg · Hannover
39'🟨Andreas Hofmann · Greuther Furth
52'🟨Edgar Prib · Hannover
63'🟨Robert Žulj · Greuther Furth
64'⚽Serdar Dursun · Greuther Furth
67'⚽Veton Berisha · Greuther Furth
84'🟨Ádám Pintér · Greuther Furth
87'🟨Niko Giesselmann · Greuther Furth
87'⚽Edgar Prib · Hannover

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthHannover
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.620.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days70.00430.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
2.00
1.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.604.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.803.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.207.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.153.40
elo1414.781598.87
elo momentum (last 5)-18.2519.13
eye test v1-1.110.59
eye trend v1-0.07-0.00
first sub minute (last 10)60.0060.30
form points (last 5)4.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.680.70
league points24.0038.00
league rank12.001.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet18.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.6067.20
possession avg (last 5)43.4055.20
rest days6.904.00
scorer concentration0.280.24
season ppg1.202.00
skill v1-1.59-0.59
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.105.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.406.00
squad age25.9826.13
state index-0.720.53
sterile dominance v1-0.79-0.62
threat rate (last 10)0.200.28
threat rate (last 3)0.250.30
threat rate (last 5)0.220.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00